BF's 2011 Fall Run Prediction thread Aug 15 to Nov 31

[BoatlessFisherman]

This is the Forecast for this weekend, Looking GOOD

Tonight...Near shore...south southwest winds 5 to 8 knots becoming west 5 to 7 knots. Well offshore...south southwest winds 7 to 10 knots becoming west southwest 8 to 11 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Scattered showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms through the night. Isolated showers early in the morning.

Friday...Northwest winds 6 to 9 knots becoming north northeast 5 to 8 knots in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.

Friday Night...Northeast winds 12 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday...East northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night And Sunday...East northeast winds 17 to 22 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday Night...East northeast winds 17 to 22 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday And Monday Night...East winds 14 to 17 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday...East southeast winds 10 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

Whats this Mean??

Ok I am going out on a limb here, this is what I see.

Friday Night Bluefish move in all night along with small sharks "Atlantic sharp nose and Black tips, maybe a snapper or two.

Saturday Morning - Macks, Bluefish and we may also see some keeper Pomps now start to show, water temps have come down and I believe will make another significant drop and if all goes well our water temps in the surf will drop to 79-I will explain at the end.

Sunday it should be in motion and fish should be abundant.

Now I am not a fish and they may not do what i think they should but if they do I would be fishing somewhere in Broward along the coast because it could be a lot of fun, any pier and any beach.

This should also push some more mullet are way starting Saturday
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Water temps how I get my temps, I call ocean rescue from Miami to Boynton and get there readings I do not use open water readings, I use coastal reading.

What has the the trend been

Well as Oct 3 = 87 degrees ----- Oct 4 =87----Oct 5= 86 --- 0ct 7 = 84 degrees and then on Oct 9 = 81degrees and has held there until today and I believe it will drop after this NE.


So lets hope I am right and we catch em up. Tight lines


I will do another post showing some graphics of water changes and movement before Saturday night if it does what I want and explain how I judge how the fish is effected.

Same goes for if something not good happens and it changes.

[swordfish]

If it holds true I shall make an appearance on monday morning once again! Hope to see you and the roofer out there

-swordfish

[BoatlessFisherman]

We will be there

[clarence2society]

We will probably be there again as well. Sword i didnt know you were on forum. i was fishing and jigging right next to you this past monday. Ill have to say hello this time. I was too busy trying to tie knots for an hour lmfao..

[bernsey49]

yee haw thanks Tommy and everyone for the tips and picks having fun and my lady is happy makes my life easier :) going to dr.s pass today take care all and god bless
bernie

[bmwi6]

Awesome tips. thanks

[Dragon]

Millions of mullet still at Sebastian according to Capt. Mark Worley who is there today.

[JustTVH]

Wont help unless they push out and south

[swordfish]

Simply means that the best is yet to come

-swordfish

[clambellies]

I'm a new member and looking forward to mining some info from this site. I'm planning to come to Fla from mid feb to mid march, haven't settled on where just yet. My choice of locations will probably center on what's the best fishing options from a shore access for that time period.

[bait shooter]

New to this website , and very impressed , with the attitude , and willingness to help others . No one of us is going to catch all the fish in the ocean , as we all well know . If we were talking about secret ponds hidden in the woods , that might be a different story . I'm aware that the blacktips will be gathering up shortly , along the SE coast of Florida . Can you tell me if they are migrating north , or south , to get there . Living in Georgia , it is too expensive for me to make a long run to south Florida . I've heard that sharking is pretty good at Jekyl island , here in Georgia . Do you have any info. on this , or any other location , possibly in extreme north Florida . I have several panhandle locations , with lots of sharks , if you're interested in a new area . Keep up the good work . As for me , I'm having a blast . Just realized that I may be in wrong location for this post . I just hunt and peck , so this has taken a long time to just delete . SORRY

[Ken+]

New to this website , and very impressed , with the attitude , and willingness to help others . No one of us is going to catch all the fish in the ocean , as we all well know . If we were talking about secret ponds hidden in the woods , that might be a different story . I'm aware that the blacktips will be gathering up shortly , along the SE coast of Florida . Can you tell me if they are migrating north , or south , to get there . Living in Georgia , it is too expensive for me to make a long run to south Florida . I've heard that sharking is pretty good at Jekyl island , here in Georgia . Do you have any info. on this , or any other location , possibly in extreme north Florida . I have several panhandle locations , with lots of sharks , if you're interested in a new area . Keep up the good work . As for me , I'm having a blast . Just realized that I may be in wrong location for this post . I just hunt and peck , so this has taken a long time to just delete . SORRY

This is just from one limited experience from visiting Savannah. I was fishing at Tybee pier and during my afternoon there, I saw 4 blacktips caught (between 3-4 feet long) and someone next to me hooked into a 5-foot hammerhead. I heard that night time is even better but I was at a conference and I couldn't stay late. The people who were catching sharks were fishing with fresh cut mullet and cut bluefish. As far as I could tell, they were casting it out as far as possible off the T. The hammerhead was actually caught just inside the T and the lines were fished parallel to the beach. For a moment we didn't know who had the fish on since both my rod and the guy's rod next to me went off at the same time. When the fish came up just a bit, my line was wrapped around the other guy's rod. Fish must have hit his bait and ran straight into my line. We were not even fishing that close to each other.

I know Tybee is not that close to Jekell Island, but maybe if you have time, you can check it out.

Ken